Place your bets

December 28, 2008 at 6:00 pm | In Politics | Leave a Comment
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On whether Gazprom will go through with cutting off Ukraine’s gas on 1st January. I’m betting they will, despite the fact that it was a bad idea the first time they did it 2 years ago and isn’t any better of an idea this time round. Gazprom’s demands that Ukraine pay market rates for it’s gas is not actually particularly unreasonable. From a commercial perspective, it makes perfect sense that Ukraine, no longer a part of the USSR, doesn’t receive preferential treatment, particularly given Yushchenko’s ‘betrayal’ of the close bond between Ukraine and Russia in favour of allegiance to the West.

In terms of politics however, it’s hard to see how this could be anything other than another own goal for Russian public relations. The stalemate over this issue is longstanding. Ukraine doesn’t have the money to pay for an increase in gas prices (or for anything else it seems, following an emergency IMF loan recently), Gazprom doesn’t have the money to continue to let Ukraine off the hook. Rather than agree to a long term, gradual increase in prices however, Gazprom stamps its foot and declares ‘I want it all. Now.’ As a negotiating tactic this has not been particularly successful. It has also not endeared Russia to would-be international investors, particularly Europeans, who are acutely aware of their own energy dependency on Russia. Add into the mix the European paranoia that Gazprom’s moves are politically motivated and Russia has created a fairly toxic investment climate. This was all well and good up until earlier this year, where high oil and gas prices meant that Russia was generating enough income of its own not to need foreign investment in the short term. Now, however, with the weaknesses of the Russian economy exposed, and oil prices projected to fall as low as $35 a barrel at some point next year, Russia may well need that foreign investment it has shunned in the past few years in order to halt the falling production of its hydrocarbon fields.

While Gazprom has admitted that it will need some technical assistance in accessing the Shtokman field, it is not yet clear whether they will have sufficient revenues for things such as the planned building of pipelines to China, or LNG terminals, all designed to reduce Russia’s dependency on European revenues, which come with too many political strings attached. If it turns out that there are insufficient funds for this, Russia may soon be regretting having been so quick to irritate and ignore the EU, particularly with the plans for the NordStream pipeline rapidly going down the plughole also.

Indonesian bishops, tea ceremony, and little red packets. Part 1

December 23, 2008 at 5:14 pm | In Travels | Leave a Comment
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so..asian weddings = LOTS of fun:

P, the other guy staying in our room rocked up an hour before we left for the church completely bemused because he’d thought the wedding was gonna be on Monday and had to frantically shower and change into his suit (I’m not quite sure on what basis he booked his flights since he hadn’t looked at the date on the invitation) The wedding ceremony itself was on saturday and we got driven to a church which was decorated with spectacularly tacky jesus statues and neon lighting as well as a christmas tree and other tinsely like things in a way that only Asia does. Surprisingly few guests at the actual church service, around 100 (do bear in mind this is the mother of all weddings). Programmes printed with English at the front and Chinese at the back. G looked great but absolutely terrified. Ceremony was done mostly in Chinese, with a bit of Indonesian thrown in by the bishop of Indonesia who was giving the blessing. It was lovely though and I got all teared up when L walked up the aisle. G looked especially cute when they went to sign the register and he was picking up the train of L’s dress in a very devoted way.

After the ceremony we got driven to a very swanky hotel for the afternoon tea reception (saturday was the western part) where I was immediately engulfed in a massive hug accompanied by a screech from L’s mum which was a bit surprising given that I’d only actually met her once before at a garden party and she only speaks chinese so our communications were limited even then. Coming over to find out what all the excitement was about, L’s dad (who I’d never met, also doesn’t speak english) pumped my hand so hard I thought I was gonna have to go home without it. After that I had a nice chat to G’s mum, who I’ve also only met once, a million years ago when she came to visit G in Oxford but she seemed to know all about what I was doing. Also met G’s dad for the first time, again, limited interaction due to language barrier, but he seemed pleased that I’d come. After that, drank copious amounts of champagne with friends and much nice food was consumed. After the reception L asked me to stay behind because she wanted me to be one of her ’sisters’ for the chinese ceremony the next day and we had to do some planning. Very exciting and touching.

stuff what I have learned about Chinese wedding traditions:
In the morning the groom and his ‘brothers’ come to the house of the bride (in this case hotel room) to try and steal her away from her ’sisters’. The bride is hidden away inside, while the sisters force the groom and his brothers to perform a number of tasks and pay the bride price (symbolic number 9,999 but clearly in singaporean dollars way too much money so haggling ensues) to prove his love for his bride. After he’s completed the tasks to their satisfaction, he is allowed into the house to collect the bride and take her to his parents’ house for tea ceremony.
So, after planning with controlling but presumably very good wedding planner that evening, we showed up at 7.30 am to put them all to the test. Made G and brothers skip with rope whilst singing Jingle Bells , also to limbo under said rope held ridiculously low about 1 feet off the ground. All this in Sheraton Towers hotel with door wide open and Lin hiding in the bedroom in her wedding gown. G is hopelessly malcoordinated and tone deaf and therefore can’t do any of these things and I almost wet myself laughing. Can however eat copious amounts of broccoli with wasabi, followed by bitter gourd, followed by straight golden syrup, followed by grapefruit, and gave us back the raw chili on account of it not being hot enough for him. (The eating something sweet, something sour, something bitter etc is symbolic of being together though good and bad times). Oh, forgot to mention, all this was being videoed to be shown on giant screens to the entire 300 people (plus parents obviously) later that night at the banquet.

Following this entertaining spectacle we were whisked off to G’s parents’ house for tea ceremony. Driver drove like a complete mentalist due to needing to reach the house at 9 to ensure auspicious timing. Not quite sure how auspicious timing is calculated, but rigid schedule seemed very important. Sisters were also asked not to wear black as this would cause us to fail on an auspiciousometer and would result in us not being allowed to the tea ceremony. Tea ceremony itself took place without us however, since we were whisked off outside in the garden and given chinese sweets to entertain ourselves with. Got to know all the other brothers and sisters though which was nice since we were pretty much the only young people involved in the whole shindig. Post tea ceremony was brunch, which was a buffet banquet in itself, involving caterers, sushi, hors d’oeuvres, 8 different main options, sweets, cake, and fruit. At 11am. In 30 degree heat. Don’t understand how singaporeans can do it…they eat like hobbits. Remind self of 10 course banquet to look forward to tonight and refrain from going overboard with the sushi.

Stay tuned for part 2 of the marathon epic that was this wedding…
(pictures to follow when my bluetooth starts working again)

Greetings from Singapore

December 19, 2008 at 2:05 pm | In Travels | Leave a Comment
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So, after a very brief stop in London, a trip to my storage container in Oxford, and 16 hours of flying I’m back in Singapore again. Had forgotten quite how dire Doha airport is. Perhaps I’d blotted it out of my memory after last time when I had a 6 hour stopover there in the middle of Ramadan and was reduced to going into the toilets and drinking out of the tap due to the lack of anything to eat or drink… I find it amazing that they enforce that kind of thing even airside, especially since, to my knowledge, noone goes to Doha to go to Doha, they’re all on their way to someone else and consequently most of them aren’t even Muslim. Oh well. This time there was food and drink available from the 3 really shitty cafes, and but the shopping was still as nonexistant as ever, and the wifi also refused to work.

Singapore has been ok so far though, spent yesterday catching up with a friend from Oxford who’s also here, and enjoying being warm again. The wedding is tomorrow and quite excited about that. The only downside is that accommodation has been provided such that I am sleeping in the same room as my ex boyfriend and his new fiance (also friends of the groom) which is..well..awkward. She refuses to speak to me, and I think has forbidden him to talk to me also because he’s very reluctant to do so, so I’m amusing myself by pretending nothing’s wrong and waffling on anyway.

Very hard to feel festive here because of the heat, and the fact that coming from Moscow, everyone was preparing for New Year, not Christmas as well. Despite being a shopping mecca, I’ve found very little here that I want to buy anyone for presents. Will try going to little india and chinatown over the next couple of days to see if I can find anything more inspiring there.

Anyhoo, that’s all for the moment. Now gonna get some beauty sleep for the wedding tomorrow.

End of an era

December 12, 2008 at 3:12 pm | In Life in Moscow | 1 Comment
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So, last day of classes today. Was sad really, lots of people I’ve gotten used to seeing every day won’t be coming back, including V meant it felt all a bit depressingly final even though I know it’s not the end for me. The nice thing was that even though I’m only halfway through, I got a certificate along with everyone else who finished saying what level I’m at. I’m proud to report that after 220 hours of classes, I’ve now reached upper elementary level! Which sounds like much less of an achievement than it actually is, but I achieved the level I wanted to, and it vindicated taking the private lessons and pushing myself massively to move up a group since the group below me that I was in before only reached lower elementary which I would’ve been disappointed with I think…

Now all I have left to do is run around manically buying matryoshka dolls and stupid fur hats for people as christmas presents before trying desperately to cram it all into my suitcase. I came out here with 35kg (amazingly noone blinked an eyelid at this at checkin in heathrow) and have bought lots more stuff since I’ve been here. To avoid the possibility that the russian checkin ladies may not be so forgiving, I took all my books, my winter coat (which I’ve not worn once since I got here because it’s been so warm) and some other bits and pieces round to K’s house to leave here over the break. I realise this will only make life more difficult for myself if I have to leave Russia properly at the end of April, but I’m a big fan of putting off potential problems until I’ve got no choice but to deal with them.

N’s promised to come out with me on Saturday night to celebrate my birthday, and also drive me to the airport on Sunday (luckily I have an afternoon flight so I don’t have to worry about hangovers) so that should be nice. I also went out on Wednesday with V and K to say bye since K left already today. While we were there, she gave me my birthday present from the 2 of them: the hilarious Putin & Medvyedev clock! Possibly the best present anyone’s got me in a long time…

In other sad news, my beloved ipod has died. I got it almost 5 years ago for my 18th birthday and its been a faithful companion ever since, not minding how many times I dropped it or overcharged the battery or almost snapped off the charging cable in it, but somehow it didn’t seem able to cope with Russia. It was so old one of Bran’s friends offered to buy it from me simply because it was ‘retro’ (it’s one of the ones with the 4 buttons along the top rather than a click wheel) but I loved it so much I couldn’t bear to get a new one. I’m still undecided whether I should pay to get it fixed, which I’m sure will cost about the same as a new one, or move on and upgrade… Seems like a betrayal to it somehow.

Anyway, I’m off on a new adventure now, to London for a couple of days before flying to Singapore for a friend’s wedding, getting back on Christmas eve for Christmas in Oxford which will be nice. I’m sad to be missing out on New Years in Moscow though, It seems like the most insanely celebrated holiday here (Stay tuned for writings on Russian New Years), but maybe I’ll catch it next year…

Russian apathy

December 8, 2008 at 2:41 pm | In Life in Moscow, Politics | 2 Comments
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Tis commonly observed by visitors to Russia that Russians are amazingly apathetic about the state of their country’s politics. This was evidenced today by my teacher in class. Every day during breaks in class I peruse the Moscow Times to try and keep vaguely up to date with what’s happening in this part of the world, and the leader today was about the death of the Patriarch Alexei II, and his alleged role in the KGB and FSB during his life. My teacher is unusually religious for a Russian, and when I mentioned what I was reading, she launched into an excited discussion of everything he did to reinvigorate the church following the collapse of communism. When someone ventured that he may have had a less than squeaky clean past, however, she clammed up, saying only that she had never seen any evidence of that and she couldn’t speak about what she didn’t know. This seems to be a general excuse that I’ve heard from many people here; Russians don’t associate their lives with politics, and would prefer to imagine their heroes as completely removed from the less appealing elements of Russian society and politics. One of my friends here once made the mistake of venturing that Yuri Gagarin was an alcoholic in later life and that prompted massive outrage from her teacher.

The financial crisis here is entirely blamed on America and excesses of the West by the media, where the press is allowed to speak only of a global financial crisis to which Russia has fallen victim, not that Russia has in any way contributed to its economic issues. Meanwhile, people seem to be complaining that the rouble is falling, withdrawing all their savings from the banks, and complaining about price rises, while at the same time refusing to entertain the possibility that the government could have done something to prevent this, and that, where corruption in the economy exists, it is with low level players and thus below the radar of Putin and the other big wigs. It’s gotten rather depressing observing time and time again that normal people see politics as something which has no effect on them and that they have no effect on it.

I haven’t quite reached the level of pessimism that another guy in my class has though, who declared to me today that old adage that ‘Russia cannot exist without a strong leader, the country would fall apart if they really tried to have a democracy’

More provocation from Saakashvili

December 3, 2008 at 3:08 pm | In Georgia, Politics | 2 Comments
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Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal (reprinted in the Moscow Times where I read it today) where Saakashvili seems to be adopting the policy of shouting loudly at the West and Russia and refusing to acknowledge any mishandling of the war. In his comment he accuses Russia of many things, including ‘constantly blocking all international peacekeeping efforts’; ‘Instigating a series of deadly provocations and open attacks over the course of many months’; ‘covering up a long-planned invasion’ and harbouring imperialistic ambitions towards other neighbouring states.

The comment is intended to justify Georgia’s actions during the war as self-defensive, and some of the comments he makes are valid points. Certainly much of Eastern Europe is concerned about the potential for Russian aggression, but the overall tone of the piece is self-justifying and attention seeking. It seems to me that Saakashvili’s methods of drawing attention to the issue are lacking in tact, real desire to move Georgia’s relations with Russia forward, or any knowledge of how to attract support for his cause from the West. Russia has never responded well to direct accusation, and while I don’t believe it necessary for Georgia to bow and scrape before its neighbour, publishing virulent comments in an American newspaper seems to go against any attempt to enter into diplomatic negotiations with Russia, or obtain Western support given that America has no intention of getting into a slanging match with Russia. Add to this the fact that Georgia hardly came out of the war as squeaky clean either, the refusal to admit to any mishandling of the events makes it even less likely that Saakashvili’s protests will be taken seriously.

I wonder whether he believes that this is a productive way to solve the Ossetian/Abkhazian problem. If so, he has really lost all touch with how to conduct political dialogue.

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